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Big picture: All eyes on Buttler
What could have been a quarter-final is all but a dead rubber as Group B closes out with the meeting of two heavyweights. England are already out of semi-final contention, and will soon have to go down a spiral of introspection over their poor ODI showings, starting with the decision of Jos Buttler to step down as captain. South Africa are all but through to the last four (all but the the most outlandish of heavy defeats will see them through ahead of Afghanistan following Friday’s washout), and it will be their third successive appearance in the knockouts of an ICC event. It will also vindicate white-ball coach Rob Walter’s assertion that when they have a full-strength squad available, they can challenge the best.
Some may not even consider England worthy of the label at the moment, but they are the highest-ranked opposition South Africa will actually play against at this tournament so far, after their fixture against Australia was also washed out. South Africa’s first match was a week ago against Afghanistan, who they beat comfortably in Karachi, the same venue as this game. England, though, lost to Afghanistan for the second successive time in a big ODI event, and will wonder if the gulf between themselves and South Africa is as wide as the margin of results against Afghanistan suggests.
The evidence of the last World Cup hints at that, after South Africa galloped to a 229-run thrashing of England in Mumbai. Before that, South Africa beat England 2-1 in an ODI series thrust into the middle of the inaugural SA20 which ensured their qualification for that World Cup. In some ways, that series signalled a turning point for both sides: South Africa began rebuilding, and results have largely been positive, while England – though they won ODI series against Bangladesh, New Zealand and Ireland in 2023 – have lost their last four bilateral contests and appear out of sorts at major tournaments.
They won’t want to leave this one without having some say. An attack of Jofra Archer, Adil Rashid and Liam Livingstone will be a challenge for South Africa, who will hope to hit back by solidifying their own batting strategy ahead of a likely semi-final.
South Africa: WLLLL (last five completed matches, most recent first)
England: Lllll
In the spotlight: Joe Root and Wiaan Mulder
After leading the run-scoring list at one stage in the SA20 and ultimately finishing eighth, Joe Root became a fan favourite in South Africa – and especially among Paarl Royals supporters – and they would like to take some credit for his current form. He is currently third in this year’s Champions Trophy’s batting charts, and has already contributed a fifty and a hundred – the latter his first in 40 ODIs since 2019. But Root would love to be able to make a significant score in a winning cause. He is as familiar with South Africa’s attack as they are with him, and may see this as an opportunity to show his dominance against them and in an England line-up set for a shake up.
Wiaan Mulder has gone from a fringe player to one of the must-haves in a South Africa side which already has one seam-bowling allrounder in Marco Jansen. Mulder plays a completely different role to Jansen, whose left-arm angle, express pace and ability to generate bounce is one of South Africa’s premier modes of attack. Mulder, meanwhile, offers seam movement and a hint of swing, and has worked hard on both his consistency and his batting, which gives South Africa the luxury of a fourth seamer and a lengthened line-up. There were some glimpses of his batting ability with his brief innings of 12 from six balls against Afghanistan, where he also took 2 for 36 in nine overs in an under-rated but important contribution.
Injuries continue to mount for England. Mark Wood is set to see a specialist in the UK next week after suffering a left knee injury against Afghanistan. Saqib Mahmood could play his 13th ODI in Wood’s place. And, of course, this will be Buttler’s last game in charge.
England (probable): 1 Phil Salt, 2 Ben Duckett, 3 Jamie Smith (wk), 4 Joe Root, 5 Harry Brook, 6 Jos Buttler (capt), 7 Liam Livingstone, 8 Jamie Overton, 9 Jofra Archer, 10 Adil Rashid, 11 Saqib Mahmood
Heinrich Klaasen has been declared “fine and available for selection” by Walter after he missed the match against Afghanistan due to an elbow injury. With Klaasen slotting into the middle order, that will force South Africa to leave one of their top-order players out. On form, that is likely to be Tony de Zorzi, with Ryan Rickelton partnering Temba Bavuma at the top, and Rassie van der Dussen to slot in at No. 3. South Africa’s attack could remain unchanged, though, which means space for only one specialist spinner.
South Africa (Probable): 1 Temba Bavuma (Capt), 2 Ryan Rickelton, 3 Rassie Van Der Dussen, 4 Aiden Markram, 5 Heinrich Klaasen, 7 Wiaan Mulder, 9 Keshav Maharaj, 10 Kahav Maharaj, 11 Kagiso Rabada, 11 Lungi Rabada, 11 Mall Ngidi
The most important news, given the way things have gone over the last few days, is that a clear day is forecast for Karachi, which has thus far also been a high-scoring venue. In the two previous matches played there in this tournament, the team batting first has scored over 300 and won the game convincingly. South Africa were one of those teams, and they believed they could have topped up their 315 for 6 against Afghanistan and know what’s possible after their experience in these conditions in a tri-series over the last month. England have been involved in two high-scoring games and fallen short both times, and may be wondering how much is enough. In their last hurrah, they may want to reinforce that their batting blueprint is not just entertaining but successful as well.
“If you look at the quality of the players, the English players are quality. In league cricket around the world, they do well, which should suggest that they’re adaptable. If you look at the names on the sheet, there’s some quality players there. There’s no doubt about that. Cricket can be fickle and sport can be fickle, and sometimes that results in you losing. There’s good cricketers that, to be honest, could turn out tomorrow and deliver an international standard performance against us.”
South Africa white-ball coach Rob Walter on why his team is expecting a fight from England in their final appearance at this year’s Champions Trophy
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