Despite Ramazan, SPI records 1.97% YoY decline

Despite the ongoing month of Ramazan, a period when prices typically rise due to increased demand for fruits, vegetables and other items, the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) for the week ended March 13, 2025 recorded a 1.97% year-on-year (YoY) decline. This marks the lowest annual inflation rate in recent times.

However, on a week-on-week (WoW) basis, the SPI saw a 0.22% increase, reflecting rising prices of essential commodities.

Kitchen items such as tomatoes, chicken and sugar registered a sharp price hike while onions, potatoes and eggs became notably cheaper. Data indicates continued price fluctuations, impacting household budgets across the country.

“The SPI for the week ended March 13, 2025 recorded a decrease of 1.97% YoY, the lowest since the data was available,” Arif Habib Limited (AHL) reported.

The SPI recorded a 0.22% increase when compared with the previous week. The most notable price hikes were observed in tomatoes (36.43%), chicken (6.40%), bananas (6.05%), sugar (5.69%), LPG (1.44%), georgette and gur (1.32% each), bread (1.13%), beef (0.57%), pulse moong (0.28%) and cigarettes (0.27%).

Conversely, the largest declines were recorded in onions (-16.71%), potatoes (-6.59%), garlic (-5.29%), pulse gram (-1.91%), eggs (-1.55%), Lipton tea (-1.13%), pulse mash (-0.49%) and prepared tea (-0.39%).

Out of 51 essential items, the prices of 12 items (23.53%) increased, 15 items (29.41%) decreased and 24 items (47.06%) remained unchanged during the week under review.

On a YoY basis, the most significant price reductions were seen in onions (-72.32%), tomatoes (-51.96%), wheat flour (-36.20%), chilli powder (-20%), Q1 electricity charges (-18.92%), Lipton tea (-15.89%), pulse mash (-14.98%), pulse masoor (-12.38%), diesel (-9.91%), petrol (-8.55%) and LPG (-5.35%).

However, several commodities registered substantial YoY increases, including ladies’ sandals (75.09%), pulse moong (26.84%), powdered milk (25.93%), beef (21.35%), pulse gram (19.42%), chicken (18.72%), sugar (18.55%), 1kg vegetable ghee (16.13%), 2.5kg vegetable ghee (15.34%), shirting (12.98%), georgette (11.21%) and firewood (11.07%).

The data reflects continued volatility in essential commodity prices, with notable fluctuations in food items, fuel and household necessities. AHL data highlights a significant disinflationary trend since October 2024, when the YoY SPI stood above 14%. Over the past months, inflationary pressures have consistently eased, bringing the SPI into negative territory by early 2025.